Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Random Variables

Random Variables

Statistics and variables are something that really speak to me. When I look at numbers I can see trends, or patterns in numbers, things seem to make sense. It is as if chaos can be departmentalized.

Now by no means am I saying that I am some savant when it comes to mathematics. Oh no far from the truth, Mr. C my High School Geometry teacher would tell you I was good at algebra - but Geometry lord I was a mess. Let's not even go to Calculus or Trig, I still have nightmares. Thank goodness I was a business major; it is hard to screw up when all you are looking at it as Accounting and Finance - Simple formulas all very logical.

However then I found probability and statistics. It was a beautiful thing that my head liked to do naturally. It creates order and logic out of a groups of numbers, Kind of like what happens when you Alphabetizing your CD collection by artist and genre, or the spices in your kitchen. You see things in order and suddenly you know why? Or your see how they group together; like a group of numbers group together to create a pattern or trend.

Then there were random variable which had either an associated probability distribution or probability density function (continuous random variable). The probability distribution of a random variable is often characterized by a small number of parameters, which also have a practical interpretation.

What I find the most interesting is associated probability distribution is the Convergence of random variables in probability. We see this happen all the time in life. An accidental convergence of two events and two people things that have a relationship to one another that you would never associated one to the other.

Yesterday was a perfect example of a convergence of random variables. My friends and an a CEO all of which will remain nameless. Both individuals worked for the same company - random association. They both received DUI's - another random association. Now for the random convergence - they meet yesterday at DUI school. I literally could not make this up. Yes my friend was sitting across the room from her former CEO in the same DUI class. Now we are not talking about some small company we are talking big Multinational company.

Now when Random convergences happen to people in real life it can be awkward. As she sat in class half the day gazing at him in disbelief. She texted me on her blackberry during her breaks. We were convinced that he was a look a like, something.

She kept saying, how does someone that was so bight and brilliant end up in a DUI class. Honestly I felt the same way when she called me and told me she had received the DUI. The two of them were one of a handful of 'normal' people in the class. The others young kids - they are educated professional business people. The associated variable with the abnormal a high number of them had other drug problems in addition to drinking - okay one lady was an outlier. She was sleep walking on an a prescription sleeping drug when she received her DUI. However over all when looking at convergence of random probably this was really an unlikely match.

When you use the data to diagnose a problem or develop a theory, make a decision with a perceived outcome based on your sample data. In this instance the dilemma was what to do next? In the end she introduced herself. They spoke briefly and she realized that these things happen; we do not always make the right choices.

In the end it is facing the random variable and moving forward that counts. Look at the numbers and realize that you can have a convergence. The world is small, random variables happen to CEO, twenty-one year old, and soccer moms.

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